Trump gave Russia 50 days to cease fire. What will happen if Putin refuses?

At a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump said he is “very, very” dissatisfied with Russia and admitted that four times he thought he had made a deal with Putin, but it turned out that Putin was deceiving him. However, according to the American president, Putin managed to deceive Clinton, Bush, Biden, Obama, but he won’t fool Trump. Therefore, if Russia does not cease fire within 50 days, Trump will impose a 100% tariff on trade with it.

The threat honestly doesn’t look very serious. First, 50 days is a great advantage for Putin, confident that by autumn he will achieve his goals and reach the borders of the four “annexed” regions. Second, Russian-American trade was never particularly broad even in the best of times, and now trade turnover is at its lowest level since 1992, having fallen tenfold during the years of war – only $3.5 billion according to the U.S. Trade Representative and $3.7 billion according to the Russian estimate. Yes, in March it grew 1.5 times, but that is still a mere $573 million, a drop in the ocean. So a 100% tariff, even if introduced, will not affect either the U.S. or Russia. It’s no surprise that on Trump’s words the Russian stock market, which had been falling since morning in anticipation of sanctions, jumped up 2.75% in one candle.

However, it’s too early to rejoice. First, according to Trump’s words, it’s not very clear whether he means tariffs on Russian goods or, as NYT, FT, and Bloomberg believe, he meant secondary sanctions on those trading with Russia – and that would be quite serious sanctions.

Second, at the same time Trump announced his decisions on supplying weapons to Ukraine, and here there is a fundamental change. Judge for yourself.

The U.S. will supply NATO with the “most modern” weapons, according to Trump, and NATO will transfer them to Ukraine. There is a trick here: formally, the U.S. will sell weapons to NATO at its request. Then NATO can either supply this weaponry to Ukraine or keep it for itself and give Ukraine older weapons. And the U.S. cannot be accused of supplying Ukraine with certain systems – for example, missiles capable of reaching Moscow. Formally, such missiles and other weapons will be supplied by NATO.

What the U.S. will definitely supply is 17 Patriot air defense systems. That’s a lot. For comparison: Germany had only 12 such systems, now six, and Ukraine only two. It seems the massive bombings of Kyiv made a stunning impression on Trump. Moreover, Ukraine won’t even have to wait for these deliveries: NATO countries will send their systems to Ukraine and then receive new ones from the U.S.

Considering these statements, it is quite likely that the 50 days given by Trump will not help Putin much in achieving his goals. Perhaps quite the opposite.

Third, Trump’s statements do not cancel the consideration in Congress of a bill to impose 500% sanctions on countries buying Russian oil and uranium without helping Ukraine. Rather, the threat remains from Trump to continue pressuring Putin.

Fourth, tomorrow the EU is expected to agree on the 18th package of sanctions, and all indications are that it will include a “floating” cap on Russian oil – expected to be set at 15% of the market price.

So if I were a market speculator or a telepatriot, I wouldn’t be rejoicing. What did Putin say? “We haven’t even started yet.” Now, perhaps, Trump can repeat his phrase.

In the main photo — U.S. President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office. Source: White House website