«There will be no mass raids on migrants in Germany like in the USA»

- AfD’s rating has surpassed that of the CDU. Are these seasonal fluctuations or a sign of serious changes in the mood of German citizens?

- There is nothing new here. For several months after the parliamentary elections, various sociological services have been recording fluctuations in the preferences of German voters. AfD sometimes surged ahead, sometimes fell back. There is no clear trend showing that the far-right is growing rapidly. Yes, their ratings increased somewhat after the elections. This story is probably connected to some disappointment among the conservative voters in Chancellor Friedrich Merz. They might have expected some AfD-style actions from him, but although he took certain measures to limit illegal migration, they were probably not as radical as they expected. So some of his voters apparently shifted to the “Alternative for Germany” after the elections.

I don’t see anything alarming about this; in a democratic country, such fluctuations are normal. The next elections are still far off, the ruling coalition between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats is not planning to collapse, so early elections are unlikely. There are almost four years until the next elections, and by then the situation in Germany will be completely different in every respect. So let’s not panic.

The situation might be somewhat more complicated in the eastern part of the country, but even in the state elections nothing terrible happened. Do you remember how everyone reacted to the results in Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg? [On September 1, 2024, in the state parliament elections (Landtage), Alternative for Germany won in Thuringia and took second place in Saxony].

- Indeed! That was nerve-wracking…

- But in the end, even there the world did not end; various ruling coalitions were formed, by the way, without the AfD.

- Friedrich Merz recently stated that the welfare state needs to be reduced. Do such statements by the German chancellor play a role in what is happening with the CDU’s rating?

- Well, he didn’t say it exactly like that. The meaning of his words was that it is currently impossible to implement the idea of a welfare state. I don’t think this hit his rating too hard, because Merz’s voters are conservative, moderately right-wing, and they take such statements calmly. The left doesn’t vote for him. By the way, that’s exactly why the Social Democrats strongly opposed him. But so far, nothing significant is changing or will change in this regard. These discussions have been going on for a long time, but no social rights of Germans will be curtailed. I have no doubt about that.

Another issue is that the growth of various social subsidies and benefits in Germany does not keep pace with inflation. This process has been going on for a long time and somewhat worsens the lives of a certain number of people in the country. But this hits not Merz’s rating, but rather the Social Democrats’. Against this background, we see the relative success of “The Left” (Die Linke).

- Comparing the system working with migrants in Germany and the current USA, you realize it’s just night and day. Is something similar to what is happening now with migrants in the States possible in Germany today? I won’t even mention what happened in Germany in 1933, when the Nazis came to power.

- I think it’s impossible, although AfD would like to do something similar in Germany. Most Germans would not support that. But there is also a specific point here: the US has always had more liberal legislation than Germany. In the US, for example, one could come on a tourist visa and then gradually legalize their status by applying for asylum or by getting a job. That’s how some of my acquaintances did it.

What is Trump emphasizing now? That there are millions of illegal immigrants in the US. But the fact is many of these people came to America legally but either didn’t manage or couldn’t formalize their legal status.

In Germany, it’s somewhat more complicated. There are few such illegal migrants here. There are, of course, those who were denied asylum and told to leave the country, but for various reasons, they got stuck here.

In the US, people without officially extended residence permits legally work and pay taxes; there are millions of them. In Germany, it’s impossible to officially get a job without a residence permit, and there are few such people here. If Merz expels them (and he already does, just not very effectively), that’s good. We see that some terrorist-type crimes are committed in Germany by illegal migrants, but they are not properly searched for because there are no resources for that. Merz will deal with this, and I see nothing wrong with that because Germany denies asylum to antisocial people who have committed crimes. So if such people are expelled more intensively, that’s normal. On the contrary, the Christian Democrats will thus take away arguments for criticizing the authorities from the AfD.

- What other measures against illegal migrants can be taken in Germany today?

- Well, for example, if you have ever crossed the border between Germany and another Schengen country, you have probably noticed the “searches” on trains. They check documents of almost everyone. This didn’t used to happen. For instance, if you traveled by train from Germany to Austria, there were no document checks. Now there are. And here I also see nothing catastrophic. I hope Merz will establish some order in the migration sphere. This, I repeat, is also a way to neutralize the growth of AfD’s rating.

But actions like in the USA, when they conduct mass raids, when millions of people are on edge, when they catch them like wild animals and can deport them — such things certainly won’t happen in Germany. Among other reasons, because, as I noted, there are few people here without legal status. For example, if you are in Germany awaiting political asylum, you also have legal status here, and no one can deport you until you officially get a refusal. After that, you can appeal the decision in court. And only if the court confirms the decision can you be deported.

- How do you assess the series of provocations by Moscow in recent days against EU countries: the massive drone raid on Poland, a Russian drone over Romania at the same time, over government buildings in Warsaw on September 15? In your opinion, why does the Kremlin do this now? To test air defense? To intimidate? What else?

- I think the Kremlin has different reasons for conducting such actions. For example, purely military ones. They are indeed testing the capabilities of European air defense this way. There are also military-political reasons. By carrying out such actions, they see how much Europe is willing to tolerate brazen Kremlin provocations. As they say, they are testing for weakness: if it is tolerated, it means the escalation level can be raised even higher and some even more provocative action can be arranged. Even territorial seizures, if Europe tolerates it.

But we see that Europe does not tolerate it. The reaction to the Kremlin’s latest antics was quite harsh. This concerns not only those drones launched by Russia through the territory of Ukraine or Belarus but also those launched in European countries themselves by Russian agents. The latter is, of course, espionage, testing security services, possibly elements of sabotage. All this fits into the framework of hybrid warfare.

- How likely do you think is an attack by Russia on one or several European countries in the next one, two, or three years? If you don’t rule out such a development, in what form do you think it could happen?

- Russia is now completely bogged down in the war in Ukraine and has neither the strength, human resources, nor weapons for a second front. Russia could attack Europe only if it defeated Ukraine, secured its position there, used its mobilization resources for its own purposes, and restored its military industry. If that happened, I think Moldova would be captured immediately, which militarily is not a big problem for Moscow. After that, provocations and attempts to strike the European Union might begin, for example, the capture of the Baltic countries. But I do not believe that the Russian Federation will get through Ukraine.