In 2022, the shares of these two age groups were roughly equal — about 10%, but then the gap began to widen. According to the forecast, by 2060 the share of people over 65 could reach 20%, while the share of children under five will fall to 7%.
In 2023, more than 71% of the world’s population lived in countries where the birth rate was at or below replacement level — about 2.1 children per woman. By comparison, in 2013, 45% of the world’s population lived in such countries, meaning that over ten years this figure has risen noticeably.
The U.S. Census Bureau forecasts that the number of people over 65 will increase from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion in 2060. According to the agency’s calculations, this will account for about 55% of the net growth of the world’s population, which over the same period will rise from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion.
According to the Bureau, in 2025 the United States ranked 48th among 227 countries by the share of older population: 18.9% of the country’s residents were over 65. By 2060, this figure could rise to 23.4%, and the country will drop to 110th place in the global aging ranking.
Europe remains the oldest region on the planet, but the main numerical shift is happening outside it. In Asia, the number of people over 65 is projected to grow from 487 million to 1.24 billion by 2060, giving the region about two-thirds of the global increase in this age group.
Africa, while remaining the youngest region, will increase the number of older residents more than fourfold — from 60 million to 249 million. As a result, it will overtake Europe, where the number of people over 65 is projected to reach 214 million.
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