The Economist links this forecast to data stolen by the hacker groups Silent Crow and “Cyber Partisans BY” from Rosstat. According to Silent Crow’s estimate, Rosstat’s database lists 450,100 war-related deaths, and the hackers themselves believe that the real number of Russian army losses had reached 504,000 by August 28.
The publication writes that the leaked data are consistent with its own model, which takes into account information from foreign intelligence services, independent researchers, and sources from the front line. The Economist also notes that the number of casualties has roughly doubled each year of the war.
At the end of October, The Economist estimated the possible range of Russian army losses in Ukraine at 374,000–770,000. The publication says that, judging by Rosstat data as interpreted by Silent Crow, since the start of the invasion at least 0.9% of Russian men under 60 from the prewar size of this group have died, and among men aged 35–49 the share of the dead exceeded 1%.
The publication separately notes that Ukraine has managed to hold the front line at the cost of significantly lower absolute losses. At the same time, in relative terms, the losses may be higher: according to the UALosses project, compiled from open sources, 115,952 Ukrainian servicemen have died, and another 105,788 service members are listed as missing.
Silent Crow and “Cyber Partisans BY” reported the Rosstat hack on November 1, and over the weekend of November 7–8 they published data on Russian losses in the war in Ukraine. Bloomberg checked the structure of the allegedly stolen database and found no signs of forgery, but could not confirm the authenticity of the dataset using cryptographic methods.
Rosstat acknowledged the cyberattack but denied any leak of protected data. The Economist writes that if the leaked data are authentic, they show that Vladimir Putin must have a clear understanding of the scale of human losses caused by the war, but the available evidence is unlikely to make him change course.
