Were you bombed? We’ll take what’s left! The new pact between power and business in Russia

On Monday it became finally clear that the AFU strikes on Wildberries warehouses were only the beginning: overnight, four logistics complexes of the marketplace Ozon in southern Russia came under attack. It seems the AFU started with Wildberries because it is the largest and most popular marketplace, and also linked to the presidential administration through Suleiman Kerimov (according to rumors, this asset is overseen by AP chief Anton Vaino and his first deputy Alexey Gromov). Add to that the credit support of VTB bank, which itself is not in the best financial shape. But now that WB’s key complexes in the European part of Russia have burned down (seven of the ten largest logistics centers), and roughly a third of the company’s warehouse space has been taken out of service, the AFU has switched to the next largest target — Ozon warehouses.

Of course, Ozon’s complexes are smaller than WB’s: while the marketplaces are almost equal in total area (about 5 million sq. m. for Ozon and about 5.2 million sq. m. for WB), Ozon lags behind in the size of individual hubs: its largest centers are 70,000-140,000 sq. m., whereas WB’s are 150,000-200,000. But, as already noted, most of those giants have burned down, so the AFU has moved on to the next targets.

How critical are drone attacks for Ozon? On the one hand, the company’s goods are more distributed across the country and neighboring countries. In addition, management prepared in advance and also adopted amendments exempting it from liability for the consequences of drone strikes. And during the attacks on WB, the marketplace managed to disperse goods even further across smaller warehouses and pickup points. By debt burden, the companies are comparable: Ozon’s is lower (but its trading volume is also smaller), though its loan interest is higher. On the other hand, Ozon is part of Vladimir Yevtushenkov’s empire — AFK Sistema — and there are already huge losses there even without the marketplace, because EU sanctions have cut the timber-processing holding Segezha off from the European market, while entry into the Chinese market is difficult for the company. At the same time, most of the debt will have to be repaid by Sistema over the next two years: 51% in 2026 and 35% in 2027. Under these conditions, it is possible that Yevtushenkov will start selling off assets. Whether Ozon will be sold remains to be seen. But it looks like interesting merger and acquisition processes are about to begin in the online retail market.

But the main thing shown by the nighttime drone attacks is this: the AFU really “hasn’t even started yet”, to use Putin’s words. That means other marketplaces should get ready. Perhaps not only them.

Much has already been said about what the destruction of marketplace businesses means for the Russian economy and small business. I’ll only add that a marketplace also means advanced IT technologies. So the labor market for Russian IT specialists may deteriorate sharply.

Will marketplaces survive? More likely yes than no, but life will be much worse than before. And it is not only about material losses: customers are increasingly ordering goods on marketplaces less often. This is due both to the shrinking price gap with offline retail and branded websites, and to the fear of not receiving the goods or receiving them damaged from a burned warehouse.

By the way, about losses. The government has decided on support measures for affected marketplaces and sellers. Companies and individual entrepreneurs whose damage exceeds 5% of their annual income will be able, for one year — from August 2026 to July 2027 — to defer payment of VAT (except import VAT) and profit tax, or payments under the simplified taxation system, insurance contributions, and advance payments for these taxes. Then this debt will be repaid over the course of a year in equal installments. In addition, inspections of affected companies are suspended. These measures also apply to the RWB group, Wildberries’ parent company, and there is no doubt that after today’s attacks the rest of the marketplaces and their sellers will also be added to the list.

The support is, of course, mediocre — the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs proposed adding preferential lending for those affected, as well as the possibility of counting lost goods as part of losses, and the Association of Internet Trade Companies added direct financial support for entrepreneurs, as well as state insurance of risks — but at least something. The state is clearly no longer able to materially support everyone affected, whose number is growing before our eyes, or even forgive them taxes.

At the same time as the government’s announced measures and the AFU strikes on Ozon warehouses, it also became known about Vladimir Putin’s decree on protecting infrastructure facilities. Its essence is simple:

critical infrastructure facilities whose owners failed to ensure their security under conditions of external threats may be transferred to temporary state administration.

At the same time, the definition of such facilities is vague: “Critical information infrastructure facilities are understood to mean facilities of the fuel and energy complex, industrial facilities, communications facilities, utilities, transport and logistics infrastructure facilities (including transport and logistics complexes), energy facilities (including nuclear energy facilities), life-support facilities, critically important and potentially hazardous facilities, as well as other facilities of particular importance for ensuring the security, economic stability of the Russian Federation, and the livelihoods of the population”.

That is, this includes oil refineries, marketplaces, and any public transport, railways, airports. As well as pipelines, power plants, boiler houses — in short, everything that is of “particular importance for ensuring security, economic stability, and the livelihoods of the population”.

Appreciate the beauty of the moment. Here Vladimir Putin decides to attack a neighboring country. Then he himself proposes that business chip in for this war — money and people for the front. And then he announces: protect your own facilities yourselves. And if you don’t, we’ll take them away. The question of why business should perform the state’s duties does not even arise.

The reasons are clear: over four and a half years of war, the Russian authorities have still not prepared for Ukraine’s retaliatory strikes, continuing to behave as if those three days in which they planned to take Kyiv have not yet passed. In fact, as military experts say, it is impossible to prepare: this is a case where the size of the country’s territory begins to work against it. At the same time, Putin does not want to conclude an agreement to renounce mutual strikes deep inside the territory.

Apparently, he is not only confident that he will “wear down” Ukraine, but also that Russian business and the population will be able to endure everything obediently. In fact, right now Putin is once again changing the terms of the social contract. Now it sounds like this: we decide how and how much to fight, and you pay all the costs of the war, material and human. The only thing is, there are doubts that society will be able to withstand this contract.

Let’s start with the fact that business simply will not be able to organize protection for its facilities for quite objective reasons. First, people are reluctant to go into anti-drone security, quite reasonably fearing that the road to the front from there is much shorter than usual. Second, the effectiveness of such security is very low: hitting a drone with an anti-drone rifle is already a starred-level task, and here these rifles are in the hands of, to put it mildly, non-snipers. If security is given more serious weapons like air defense systems, the effect may be even more deafening: let us recall that it was with its own air-defense missile at the Moscow refinery that a tank was masterfully hit, whose lid so spectacularly flew into the air.

But there is also the possibility of other, more serious consequences for the authorities. Let us imagine that large companies buy serious weapons. And they will be forced to do so under the threat of asset seizure. Small companies clearly will not be able to afford serious weapons, but they can handle rifles and automatic weapons. Thus, fairly serious forces will appear in Russia, with serious weapons in their hands. Will they be able to prevent successful drone attacks? Sometimes yes, but more often no. And then, when on the one hand business starts having assets taken away, and on the other hand it effectively acquires an army... How many people did Prigozhin have during his march on Moscow?

Of course, there were professionals there, while here it would be a collection of odds and ends (although some may also recruit former Wagner fighters), but this is one of those cases where quantity turns into quality. Besides, for some of them, Moscow will be very close. What would happen if at least some major businessmen, having secured the support of at least non-participation from part of the силовики and part of the political elite, brought their troops to the Kremlin (or to Putin’s residence) and, waving the barrels of missile systems, asked very much in the style of Zhvanetsky: “How much longer are you going to keep fighting and skinning us alive?”

Today such a development seems like fantasy — both business elites and political elites are far too intimidated, and the силовики are quite happy with their cut. But when the same Prigozhin reported his successes to Putin, his mutiny also seemed fantastical. As did the fact that all the security services suddenly disappeared somewhere from the path of his march on Moscow, and the population greeted him with flowers. And this time no one will retreat: the example of Prigozhin’s blown-up plane is remembered by everyone.

To paraphrase the famous saying, one can change agreements with a certain part of society for as long as one likes, one can for some time change the contract with the whole society with impunity, but one cannot forever change the contract with the whole society with impunity. Sooner or later it will come after you — with completely different terms.