In its updated macro forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development has incorporated a 5.4% decline in investments in Russia for the year — the largest drop since 2015 and the sharpest in 11 years. By comparison, investments fell by 2.3% last year, and initially the ministry expected the decline to slow to 1.5% this year.
The ministry does not expect a quick recovery: next year investments should rise by only 0.2%, and in 2028–2029 — by 2.5% and 3%. This means that in 2029 they will only return to last year’s level and remain 2.3% below 2024 levels.
The Ministry of Economic Development explains the worsening forecast by saying that investments grew by 38% in 2020–2024, as well as by very high interest rates, which, according to the new Central Bank forecast, will decline more slowly than previously expected. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that “the correction turned out to be longer and deeper than we had planned”, and cited overall uncertainty and infrastructure risks among the reasons.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev links the restraint in investment to the fact that business, in his words, has “finally become convinced of complete insecurity”: a company can be “taken away, nationalized, burdened with some restrictions”. He also points to tax increases for the third year in a row and uncertainty about demand for business products.
In the first quarter of 2026, Rosstat recorded a 14.6% drop in investments — a record figure since 2009 — and for the first half of the year, almost 10%. According to the law firm Nektorov, Saveliev & Partners (NSP), over four and a half years of war the authorities have seized assets worth 7.6 trillion rubles from owners; among them are Domodedovo Airport, gold miner Yuzhuralzoloto, and the agroholding Rusagro.
Rusagro owner Vadim Moshkovich, a billionaire, not only lost his assets but also ended up in pretrial detention. The companies themselves are also cutting plans: in the second quarter, 86% of top managers surveyed by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) reported forced spending cuts, and 19% reported cuts to investment programs.
HSE professor Oleg Vyugin called what is happening a self-fulfilling forecast, in which companies stop investing and citizens begin to save and spend less. In his view, stopping such a process is harder than increasing budget spending.
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