The End of Illusions. In the very first days of the new year, the Kremlin suffered a series of painful blows from the US

“President Trump […] approved a bipartisan sanctions bill against Russia, which I have been working on for several months together with Senator [Democrat Richard] Blumenthal and many others. This comes at just the right moment, as Ukraine is making concessions for peace, and all Putin does is talk and continue killing innocents,” — wrote in the night of January 8 (European time) Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

Seventy-year-old Graham, who has represented South Carolina in the Senate for 23 years, is a notable figure in many respects. He is one of the most influential US congressmen, considered both a confidant of Trump and a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Russian audiences best remember Graham for a three-year-old incident, when a video leaked online, where the politician, looking pleased, discusses supporting Kyiv in the war: “Russians are dying. We've never spent money so well.” It soon turned out that the sensational statement was actually an edited splice of two different remarks, but this did not save the senator from rather symbolic Russian sanctions (Graham was even added to the Rosfinmonitoring list of terrorists and extremists, and former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev dedicated a whole post to him on Telegram).

So, throughout last year, Graham championed an innovative anti-Russian sanctions project. The essence was that financial penalties should not target Moscow itself (which is already heavily sanctioned), but those who continue to buy its oil through gray schemes—primarily China and India.

For buyers caught purchasing Russian raw materials—not only oil, but also gas, uranium, and more—Graham proposed imposing massive import tariffs on trade with the US. In some versions, the barrier could be as high as 500% of the value of the goods.

Graham claimed that his project would “break the bones” of the Russian economy, and that there were already enough Republicans and Democrats in both houses of Congress ready to vote for the historic initiative. However, according to the senator from South Carolina, Trump considered the idea too risky. But now, many signs suggest that Graham's thunder will strike after all.

“Bella,” ciao!

So what changed? If in 2025 Washington only had a stick to threaten potential violators of the Graham-Blumenthal Act, now the US also has a carrot in hand. After the “special Venezuelan operation,” it seems the US has gained real control over the oil wealth of this Latin American country.

At the moment, there is no indication that Trump and Marco Rubio seriously want major political changes in Venezuela. Everything is very Trump-like—frankly cynical: the country will continue to be run by the former associates of the late Chávez and the ousted Maduro. People who built their careers on ostentatious hatred of the United States must now supply oil to the hated Yankees at the right time and in the necessary quantities. The previous network of contacts with Iran, China, Cuba, and Russia is being thrown in the trash. And something suggests that the new acting president Delcy Rodríguez and her team will honestly fulfill their part of the contract—the “Bolivarian socialists” hardly want to end up in the US like their former boss.

However, one should not overestimate the capabilities of these unexpected partners. No matter how much they want to, Venezuelans and Americans will not be able to flood the world market with cheap oil in the near future, and thus make Russian raw materials unnecessary for buyers. According to analyst Jorge León from Rystad Energy, the “Bolivarian Republic,” which holds 17% of the world's reserves, currently provides only 0.8% of the global market supply.

The reason for this imbalance is quite prosaic. After nationalization in the mid-2000s, the oil extraction infrastructure—once built by American companies—has become quite dilapidated. It will take three to five years to modernize it.

And, as we could already see this week, the Trump administration categorically does not want to see any foreign tankers near Venezuela, whose crews still try to transport oil from South America to various parts of the world. On January 7, the Americans arrested Sophia and Bella 1 / Marinera for just that.

Incidentally, both seized vessels have equally murky histories. Both Bella 1 and Sophia have long been on the blacklists of Western regulatory agencies for active participation in schemes by Caracas and Moscow with Tehran to circumvent international sanctions. With Sophia at least the last voyage is somewhat clear: US special forces seized the oil-filled tanker right after it left Venezuela.

But the boarding of Bella 1 / Marinera remains largely a mystery. The vessel was apparently heading east across the Atlantic empty, but suspiciously desperately tried to escape the US pursuit—the crew even changed the name and the vessel's registration.

The joyless texts of ordinary diplomats

In the context of big politics, however, an unprecedented event has already occurred. At the time of the boarding, Marinera was sailing under the Russian tricolor. That is, for the first time in history, US naval sailors seized a vessel under the USSR/Russian flag in neutral waters.

Moreover, the crew did not raise the white-blue-red flag on their own. Back on December 24, 2025, the tanker crew received permission from the Russian authorities. Furthermore, the renamed and reflagged vessel was supposed to receive protection from the Russian Navy, but the submariners either did not make it in time or did not want to help the merchant sailors. In general, both options are equally joyless if you look at the incident through the eyes of a turbo-patriot. We were preparing to divide the world with the Americans for New Year, and they turned to piracy at Christmas! However, there is no point in describing the reaction of the z-channels. The audience there is conscious, so sooner or later they will convince themselves that Great Russia will be even better off without two rusty vessels.

It is much more interesting to understand the reasons behind the White House's clear rollback from its previous line on the Kremlin. The only thing that can be said with confidence is that much of it is hidden in Donald Trump's impulsive personality.

Perhaps the US president was genuinely outraged by Moscow's primitive lies about phantom Ukrainian strikes on Putin's Valdai residence. Perhaps it was the counterpart's unwillingness to actually change positions on ending the war against Ukraine; incidentally, Senator Graham hinted at this in his tweet. Perhaps it was a more complex set of reasons, including the modest gains of the Russian armed forces by the end of 2025. One thing is certain: the Russian side did not expect such a twist at all. That is why the official reactions of the Russian Foreign Ministry to Trump's actions look pathetic.

Yes, 2026 is definitely full of unexpected plot twists. The Russian Foreign Ministry, which for the previous four years trampled on the basics of diplomacy and threatened in every situation, is now diligently playing the defender of international law. Instead of previous brazen rudeness, the agency now operates with terms such as “illegitimacy,” “neocolonialism,” and even “generating acute international crisis situations.”

At the same time, statements by Russian diplomats contain neither a hint of a possible symmetrical response, nor any decisive demand to release Russians arrested on the two tankers.

It is clear that in the Kremlin and on Smolenskaya Square they have chosen a classic strategy to deal with an unexpected problem—to hide and wait it out. It is not without sense, since Trump is a man of passions. As soon as tomorrow, the eccentric president could decide to conquer Greenland and forget about Russia for a while. And then, who knows, maybe he'll invite them to Anchorage again. The main thing is to somehow survive today.

This line of thinking basically sums up Putinism in general. There is no clear “tomorrow” for it; only today matters. That is why the confrontation with the “collective West” after February 24 was actually quite convenient for the Russian leadership. For a long time, Americans, Europeans, and traitorous foreign agents promised all sorts of horrors not now, but someday in the future. Readers will remember: by such-and-such a month Ukraine will get new military equipment, on such-and-such dates a new sanctions package will kick in, by such-and-such a year Russia’s economy will fall into stagnation.

But “someday” is almost “never.”

The appointed time would pass, and nothing really changed. Food deliveries from cafes and supermarkets in Moscow continued, the flow of contract volunteers in Bashkortostan or Tuva did not dry up, and the drones assembled in Alabuga just as reliably struck high-rises in yet another Ukrainian city. The disasters promised by feeble malcontents inevitably drifted off into ever-new “tomorrows.”

But it's different with the current US president.

Trump also thinks in terms of just “today,” and right now it looks like he is thoroughly tired of waiting for the Russian leadership to stop the war in Ukraine.

While Putin steps out into the light to catch Christmas ornaments during the holiday service, Trump takes over a foreign capital in half an hour, claims foreign oil for himself, and eagerly plays at being Francis Drake. And he doesn't even hide how much he admires himself.

It is unlikely that the businessman-politician has developed any sympathy for Ukraine, but he is definitely angry with the Russian leadership. The “spirit of Anchorage,” which Kremlin propaganda so eagerly inhaled last autumn, has turned into a fleeting whiff this winter.