The main buyer of Russian grain was Iran, and in the first three months of the new agricultural season, which began on July 1, Russia will export 8–8.5 million tons of grain abroad, including 5.6–7 million tons of wheat. A year earlier, exports for the same period amounted to 14 million tons, while the average figure for this period is 15–20 million tons.
In a publication by The Insider, it is stated that this estimate was given at the conference “Agroinvestor: PRO Crop Production” by Vladimir Petrychenko, CEO of the analytics company ProZerno. According to him, during the first three months of the season Russia will export 8–8.5 million tons of grain, including 5.6–7 million tons of wheat. A year earlier, exports for the same period amounted to 14 million tons, while on average during the first three months of the season the country exports 15–20 million tons.
The main buyer of Russian grain was Iran, where it is delivered via the Caspian Sea. Iran bought 531 thousand tons of corn, 467 thousand tons of barley, and 192 thousand tons of wheat. Petrychenko noted that Iran is not among the major consumers of wheat, so the share of corn and barley in the export structure increased.
Turkey, which usually receives grain through the Black Sea, reduced purchases to 1.9% and took 78 thousand tons of wheat. Petrychenko linked the weak shipments to a record harvest of 134–135 million tons excluding the occupied regions of Ukraine: at the same time, export opportunities are limited and domestic demand is declining. In his assessment, exports will not exceed 39 million tons with a potential of 59 million tons, because the Azov-Black Sea basin is closed to commercial shipping, and transport to other ports, primarily Baltic ones, has become more expensive.
By July 1, 2027, grain stocks, according to the analyst’s forecast, will amount to 28–35 million tons. He believes that the planned state interventions of 3 million tons are insufficient. Petrychenko also said that winter sowing is already lagging behind last year’s by 800 thousand hectares, and in the south the sown area may shrink by another 1 million hectares. At the beginning of September, he said, it was also reported that Latvia and Lithuania are discussing a ban on the export of Russian grain through their ports.
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