Pavel, a retired general and former chairman of NATO's Military Committee, said that at some point the alliance may begin shooting down Russian aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles if they deliberately violate the airspace of NATO countries and do not respond to warnings. He noted that in the case of an unintentional violation, the military first warns the violator and tries to establish contact with them.
According to the Czech president, alliance countries are trying to avoid escalation, but Moscow may perceive such restraint as weakness. Pavel believes that if the violation is intentional and the violator does not respond to NATO measures, the alliance will have to act.
He linked the current situation to episodes when Russian aircraft tested American military personnel over Syria and repeatedly violated Turkish airspace. Pavel recalled that in 2015 Turkey shot down a Russian military aircraft after one of these incidents.
Separately, Pavel questioned the seriousness of Vladimir Putin's intentions regarding negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. In his view, Russia must first agree to a ceasefire and then begin negotiations without preconditions.
The Czech president also warned that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are rapidly depleting ammunition stocks, while the defense industry is not keeping up with demand. He called on Europe and the United States to speed up weapons production and change overly long and rigid procurement systems.
Pavel linked his remarks to new incidents on NATO's eastern flank: on September 23, a Russian Mi-8 military helicopter crossed the Polish border from the Kaliningrad region, after which Polish military personnel scrambled fighter jets. The next day, Romania scrambled F-16s after an unidentified aerial target crossed its border from Ukraine.
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