About this reports Radio Liberty citing the analytics company Kpler. According to these estimates, export volumes almost matched pre-war levels if Iran’s own exports are not taken into account.
At the same time, the supply scheme has changed significantly. Before the war, 83% of the oil exported from the region passed through the Strait of Hormuz, while in September about 40% of shipments bypassed the strait via pipelines and alternative routes through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Nearly 10 million barrels per day, or 60% of shipments, passed directly through Hormuz.
According to Kpler data for August, more than 70% of the oil that passed through the Strait of Hormuz was then transferred from one tanker to another in the Gulf of Oman. Some carriers use vessels to deliver oil through the strait to larger tankers waiting outside it. Some shipments are carried out without insurance or on significantly more difficult and expensive terms.
Despite the recovery in crude oil exports, a shortage of refining capacity remains. Diesel fuel prices in the European Union have reached record levels, and in the United States they have risen noticeably. The Iranian service of Radio Liberty cites experts as saying that Tehran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has declined due to the military escort of commercial vessels by U.S. forces and new supply routes.
Energy markets analyst Ellen Wald, meanwhile, says that what is happening cannot be considered a return to normal market operations. In her assessment, risks to shipping, high insurance costs, and dependence on American military protection remain.
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