On Friday, Molen wrote in the Telegram channel “Agency” that the Ukrainian army continues to advance on a front section about 90 km long between Borova in Kharkiv Oblast and Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast. He added that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are managing to push the front line away from Sloviansk, and earlier reported the liberation of more than 200 sq. km near Lyman.
On Monday, the analyst wrote that since the beginning of the year, about 450 sq. km of territory had come under Ukrainian control, while Russian forces had captured 650 sq. km more territory over the same period. Data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated September 19 gives a higher estimate: since the beginning of the year, the Ukrainian army has liberated 972 sq. km of territory, and the institute estimated Moscow’s territorial gains in 2026 at 718 sq. km.
For comparison, according to ISW, by the end of September 2023, about 370 sq. km of territory had come under the control of Ukrainian forces, while Russian forces had captured a total of about 487 sq. km more. These figures formed the basis for Molen’s assessment that in 2026 the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated roughly twice as much territory as during the 2023 counteroffensive.
An analyst from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) research group, who asked to remain anonymous, said that this year the Ukrainian Armed Forces are performing more successfully both in terms of the area of liberated territories and in achieving their objectives than in 2023, but he did not estimate the exact area of liberated territories. He explained that the conditions of the offensive in 2023 and 2026 are not comparable: then the Ukrainian army advanced in mechanized columns toward a prepared defensive line, whereas now it is operating in small groups with constant drone support.
Finnish OSINT project BlackBird Group analyst John Helin, commenting on the results of the Ukrainian operation “Vivaldi” in the Lyman direction, wrote that the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated about 200 sq. km of territory over several months. At the same time, from January to August, Russian forces captured 819 sq. km more territory than Ukrainian forces.
For additional context: the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 began in June and focused on the occupied territories of southeastern Ukraine. According to DeepState, an OSINT project close to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, in 2023 the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to liberate 14 settlements and 395 sq. km of territory, while the Russian army captured 26 settlements and 683 sq. km of territory.
