OSINT analyst Clément Molen calculated that since the start of 2026, Russian forces have taken control of about 650 sq. km of Ukrainian territory. That is roughly 80% less than Vladimir Putin publicly claimed: in early July he spoke about the “liberation” of 3000 sq. km, and by early September — of another 270 sq. km.
Molen writes that the pace of the Russian army’s advance has slowed sharply. According to his estimate, on the same dates in 2025 Russian forces had taken control of 3146 sq. km, and in 2024 — 1907 sq. km.
He also claims that, officially, Moscow says it controls 5000 sq. km more territory than Ukrainian estimates indicate, and 3000 sq. km more than pro-Russian analysts report. According to Molen, this statistics is needed primarily for internal propaganda: to hide problems and show that the army continues to advance and win at the front.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) separately writes that Russian military personnel are increasingly using AI-generated videos to show the supposed capture of populated areas where they were not present. According to ISW calculations, at least 35 such clips from at least 10 fighters and brigades appeared online from June to August.
ISW calls the “capture” of Sviatohorsk, which Putin announced in early September, its most high-profile story. Among other such episodes, the institute lists Nikolaipillia in Donetsk Oblast, Bilyi Kolodiaz in Kharkiv Oblast, and several dozen more populated areas.
ISW writes that a “culture of lies” has taken root in the Russian army, causing commanders to systematically misinform Putin about the front line. According to the institute, this creates a “fictional reality” for the Russian president and reinforces his belief that Russian forces will be able to fully capture Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026.
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