Germany is preparing hospitals for a possible conflict, Lithuania has updated evacuation plans, and NATO troops are conducting exercises in the Baltic region. At the same time, Belarusian forces carried out large maneuvers near the border with Lithuania.
Concern is being raised by numerous violations of NATO airspace, the growth of cyberattacks, and the intensification of Russia’s campaign of missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, which also affects targets near Poland.
On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Moscow could launch drones or missiles at the territory of NATO countries supporting Ukraine, “in the next few months”. On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron gathered party leaders and 2027 election candidates for an emergency meeting on Ukraine, Iran, and the energy crisis.
Macron called Tusk’s warnings “sound and well-founded” and announced a new plan to protect critical infrastructure, saying that in recent weeks the Russian hybrid threat to Europeans and France has intensified. The leader of the Radical Left Party, Guillaume Lacroix, leaving the meeting, said: “At 50, I have rarely felt such dizziness”.
Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said Tusk’s warning cannot be ignored, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Thursday that the country “should mentally prepare for something to happen”, including sabotage and Russian drones. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week that Europe faces a “very short” war if NATO allies try to attack Russia.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said that Vilnius has “the same intelligence information” about a possible false-flag operation as Tusk, but, according to him, it may date back to July. According to two diplomats, allies within NATO were not officially briefed on the new intelligence, and the alliance’s threat assessment has not changed.
A NATO spokesperson said the alliance still does not see an “immediate threat of attack”, although it urges people not to be naive and to remain vigilant. The Ukrainian analytical center Sahaidachnyi Security Center counted 100 officially attributed hybrid incidents in Europe from January to August, compared with 60 over the same period a year earlier, and one senior NATO official estimated the real number as “easily 200+” excluding cyberattacks.
This week, German and Swedish forces held joint exercises near the strategic island of Gotland, and several weeks earlier NATO allies conducted unannounced maneuvers near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Moscow is also intensifying its bellicose rhetoric ahead of Russia’s parliamentary elections this weekend, which are expected to keep power in Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.
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