According to the state-owned company, in buildings that are due to be completed next year, 38% of the area had been sold by the end of August, and in projects that are due to be completed in 2028, 21%.
Dom.RF analysts attribute the decline to cooling demand. Over eight months, developers sold 14.6 million sq. m of new-build housing — 2% more than a year earlier, and in monetary terms sales rose by 6% to 3 trillion rubles.
At the same time, the result was driven by two demand spikes — in January and in June. In the other six months, sales in the primary market were below last year’s levels by a total of 10%.
In August, developers sold 1.8 million sq. m of housing, which is 16% less than a year ago; the decline in monetary terms was the same. Nina Golubnichaya, CFO of the Samolet group, said there had been a significant drop in demand in the primary housing market amid cuts to family mortgage programs and the unaffordability of market-rate mortgages.
Analysts at Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting note that family mortgage issuance picked up in January and June, while market loans are barely growing because rates are around 18%. On September 11, the Central Bank left the key rate unchanged for the first time since April last year.
The main decline was concentrated in the largest markets: 97% of sales came from regions where more than 1 million sq. m of housing is under construction. Of the ten regions with the largest construction volumes, sales in August rose only in the Leningrad Region — by 32% — and in the Moscow Region — by 1% — while in Moscow, Krasnodar Krai, and Tyumen Region they fell by more than 40%.
Amid falling demand, the time needed to sell unsold housing in buildings under construction increased from 3.1 to 3.2 years. Average new-build prices across the country rose by 4.9% over eight months, roughly matching inflation of 4.7%.
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