The professor at the Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management in Belgium and senior researcher at the Belgian think tank Bruegel, Guntram Wolff, named limited competition in the European arms market and the slow placement of large orders as the main reasons for the EU’s slow rearmament. In an interview with The Insider, he also said that uncertainty over future orders remains an additional brake.
In May 2025, the European Commission presented the document “Europe ReArm Plan ”Readiness 2030“”. It provides for replenishing European stocks of ammunition, weapons, and military equipment, deliveries to Ukraine, pan-European projects, support for the defense industry, and expansion of production capacities.
At the end of September, the European Defence Agency prepared a report on the progress of this process. The authors of the document concluded that the current pace will not make it possible to ensure defense readiness by 2030.
Wolff said that one of the main reasons for the slow expansion of production capacities was limited competition in European markets for military products. He named the relatively slow growth in the volume of large orders as the second reason.
According to him, in those segments where orders came in at an early stage and production is handled by several companies at once, growth rates were high. As an example, he cited the production of artillery shells.
In markets where governments place their bets on “national champions”, production growth was more restrained, and the slow filling of the order portfolio became an additional brake. He named uncertainty regarding future orders as a third factor.
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