The Danish Ministry of Defence intelligence service said that in the coming months Russia may carry out a limited strike on one of the NATO countries. The agency assesses the risk as low, but growing, and allows for the deployment of a small number of troops, the use of long-range weapons against infrastructure supporting Ukraine, and other hybrid actions.
Intelligence chief Thomas Aarenkiel said at a press conference that this could involve the deployment of “military forces to a limited area within NATO countries bordering Russia”, for example under the pretext of protecting local Russian minorities. The assessment also mentions the possible sending of a small number of servicemen, including those without insignia, or the use of long-range weapons against infrastructure used to support Ukraine.
Danish intelligence also warned that Russia may intensify hybrid attacks against European countries. The statement mentions destructive cyberattacks capable of paralyzing the operation of socially important systems, and sabotage involving a high risk of human casualties.
The agency believes that Russia is under stronger pressure than at any time since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and against this backdrop may escalate against the West, even if the war in Ukraine continues. At the same time, Danish intelligence still considers a full-scale Russian invasion of one of the NATO countries extremely unlikely, although it does not rule out such a scenario.
According to the assessment of the Danish military, Moscow would need about two years to start a new regional war, and five years for a full-scale war in Europe. For a full-scale invasion, as intelligence notes, troop buildup over six months would be required, whereas previously Western intelligence services publicly spoke of a horizon of three to five years, especially if the war in Ukraine ends.
Sources
