In spring 2022, the blockade of Ukrainian ports by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet halted shipments of wheat, sunflower seeds, and other products in which Ukraine remains a major exporter. The situation began to ease only several months later, when, amid a surge in prices and a grain shortage on the global market, the UN and Turkey began negotiating with Russia to unblock shipments.
In July 2022, a grain deal was concluded for one year. Ukraine then pushed Russian ships out of its waters.
Now Vladimir Putin has rejected all proposals to stop Ukraine and Russia from striking each other’s ports, grain terminals, and ships, although Moscow was urged to do so by, among others, the leaders of Turkey and Egypt. As a result, grain and other goods shipments via the Black Sea have fallen sharply, and countries are seeking alternative routes.
Attempts by Russian farmers to increase exports through the Baltic states met resistance: Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the country had banned the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its territory, and Latvia had previously decided to block Russian shipments. The analytical company SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026-2027 agricultural year by 4.7 million tons, to 36.7 million tons, and for all grains by 4.7 million tons, to 44.7 million tons.
Bloomberg also notes that over the past quarter, wheat and corn in Chicago rose by 15%, and soybeans by 13% due to Chinese purchases after a trade agreement with the US and due to weather that worsened forecasts for palm oil and cocoa harvests.
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