The main part of the September losses, according to Black Bird Group, was caused by Ukrainian counterattacks in the Lyman area and in the direction of Komar in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, the Agency reported, citing the Finnish OSINT project. The project considers both operations successful.
Black Bird Group analysts write that this dynamic shows how changeable the front line remains in 2026. In their assessment, both Ukraine and Russia are conducting relatively slow offensive operations under conditions of intensive drone use.
As the analysis shows, the Ukrainian army also achieved local successes in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and now in the north of Donetsk Oblast. According to the project, the Russian offensive in the direction of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk has slowed.
Overall, this year’s Russian advance, according to Black Bird Group, has been extremely limited on all directions: notable gains were recorded mainly in the direction of Kramatorsk, while on other sections the offensive largely stalled. At the same time, some of the territorial losses that the project attributes to September likely occurred in previous months.
Black Bird Group writes that the “Vivaldi” operation in the Lyman direction continued throughout the summer, but the main evidence of it and public reports appeared only in the fall. In part, the project believes, this is explained by coordinated efforts to conceal the scale of the operation.
Similar conclusions were drawn by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW): according to its estimates, in September Russian forces lost control of more than 80 sq. km. The DeepState project, which is close to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, after recalculation estimated the September increase in territory under Russian control at 154 sq. km instead of the initial 66 sq. km; at the same time, the project warns that the estimate is not final, and another 270–320 sq. km of territory liberated in July–September are not yet reflected in the statistics.
The Polish project Rochan Consulting, in turn, counted about 361 sq. km of territory captured by Russia in September and 126 sq. km of losses, calling it the largest net territorial gain for the Russian army since April. According to the project, most of the captured territory was in the Dobropillia, Velykyi Burluk, Kramatorsk, and Kamyshevakha directions.
On October 1, Vladimir Putin заявил о more than a twofold acceleration of the Russian troops’ advance in September and the capture of 1,301 sq. km in a month. Black Bird Group, by contrast, believes that Russia is increasingly drifting away from its goals, that the full capture of Donetsk Oblast by 2027 is becoming less and less likely, and that in recent weeks Moscow has begun a winter campaign of long-range strikes that is unlikely to bring political concessions but may force Ukraine to shift resources from the front. The project also believes that Russia appears to be testing systems and mechanisms that may be needed for mobilization; at the same time, the decision on it and the possible scale are still unclear, although the formation of a new troop grouping could allow Moscow to resume an offensive in northern Ukraine.
