According to this assessment, the Ukrainian counteroffensive lasted four months and included several mechanized assaults: the AFU liberated Novoie in June, reached Kolodiazi by mid-August, and then attacked between Katerynivka and Novoliubovka.
Rochan Consulting head Konrad Muzyka estimates Russian army losses at 240 sq. km and believes that the attempt to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north failed.
ISW writes that the result of the operation was the complete nullification of Russian territorial gains since the beginning of March. According to the institute, Ukrainian forces managed to cut off the salient near Lyman and thwart the Russian command’s plans to encircle the belt of Donbas “fortress cities”.
Military expert Valery Shiryaev says that Ukrainian troops broke through a “very old line of defense” and reached the deep rear of the Russian force grouping operating in the Lyman area. According to him, Russian forces there were “effectively encircled”, and in a number of settlements in the Shandryholove area, supplies are being delivered only by air.
The worsening tactical situation near Lyman, according to the article, is also acknowledged by Z-channels: “Rybar” links it to systematic lies in reports upward and an erroneous assessment of the situation. The channel warns that redeploying reserves from other sectors of the “West” grouping’s area of responsibility to cover the failures near Lyman could create new gaps in the defense.
Shiryaev also believes that the AFU offensive advanced gradually and that settlements one by one moved into the gray zone where Russian troops previously felt confident. He and Molin do not speak of a turning point on the front and believe that the counteroffensive will only delay the Russian offensive on northern Donbas, while a Bloomberg source close to the Kremlin claims that Vladimir Putin expects the military to fully capture Donetsk Oblast within the next six months.
ISW, in turn, writes that the Kremlin has already shifted its Donbas deadlines at least 15 times. Military analyst Yan Matveyev calls the situation around Sviatohirsk an “enormous scandal” and says that important prospects are opening up for Ukrainian forces in the Sloviansk direction.
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