The list includes Ivanovo Oblast (+20.41 pp), Primorsky Krai (+16.45), Leningrad Oblast (+16.15), Ulyanovsk Oblast (+15.07), St. Petersburg (+14.87), Astrakhan Oblast (+14.09), Orenburg Oblast (+13.56), KhMAO (+13.43), Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (+12.58), Sakhalin Oblast (+12.53), Samara Oblast (+10.66), and Krasnoyarsk Krai (+10.06).
An unnatural distribution of interim turnout in the analysis of election commission data was also noticed in St. Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast, Primorsky Krai, and Ivanovo Oblast. Electoral analyst Ivan Shukshin wrote that in Ivanovo Oblast the signs of the problem are visible in Shuya and Kineshma, and in Leningrad Oblast — in Lomonosov, Vyborg, and Vsevolozhsk.
To select regions with anomalous voting, the list with the largest turnout increase excluded subjects where the growth could have an explanation. Three factors were taken into account: electronic voting in 33 regions, proximity to the combat zone, and anomalous results in the 2021 elections. In the latter case, materials from the foreign Free Russia Foundation and political scientist Alexander Kynev’s report on 22 regions were used; for such territories, the term “electoral sultanates”, proposed by political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, is applied.
Electoral analyst Stanislav Andreichuk said that the turnout graph shows result fabrication in at least part of the municipalities of Primorsky Krai, Ivanovo Oblast, and Leningrad Oblast, as well as St. Petersburg. According to him, by the end of voting all four regions may become “new electoral sultanates”.
Andreichuk linked the rise in falsifications to the decline in United Russia’s ratings amid high target figures set for the party by the Kremlin. Among other reasons, he named increased administrative control over public-sector employees in a number of regions and reminded that these territories had not previously been considered perfectly clean in terms of voting.
In Primorye in 2018, the regional election commission canceled the second round of the gubernatorial election after the CEC concluded that the result could not be reliably established. In the 2024 presidential election, Novaya Gazeta Europe wrote about anomalous voting in Samara Oblast, and after the regional elections of the same year, Golos published a report on falsified results in Orenburg Oblast and St. Petersburg. Three experts interviewed by Agentstvo believe that the final list of regions with anomalous voting can only be named after the polls close.
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