In Kibera, Kenya, one of the country’s largest informal settlements, 62-year-old Agnes Shikoli says she fears drowning or being crushed by her house. Her home stands a few meters from the Ngong River, and traces of the flooding after the rains earlier this year are still visible inside, including a broken television.
Shikoli keeps a photo of her sister Beatrice Halai, who was 58 and died of electrocution after her house was flooded. According to Shikoli, she hides the photo away because it is hard for her to look at it.
Clearing waterways is being carried out as part of the Climate Worx program under the office of President William Ruto, and Nairobi county disaster management chief Bramwell Simiyu says the drainage systems have “not been touched for many years”. He says the existing network was built about 30 years ago for 2.5 million residents, while during the day there are about 7 million people in the city and 5.5 million at night.
Simiyu estimates a full modernization of the sewer and drainage system at $192 million and believes that without it the city will remain vulnerable to new flooding. The Nairobi River Basin restoration program proposes leaving a buffer zone along rivers and relocating people “humanely” where necessary, while the UN migration agency warns that due to the expected floods in Kenya this year, nearly 900,000 people may be forced to leave.
According to Simiyu, in the worst-case scenario up to 100,000 people could be at risk, and in a more moderate one about 5,000 households, or 20,000 people; 167 temporary sites with food and aid supplies are planned for relocation. Kenya’s meteorological service warns that the peak of the short rainy season usually falls in November, and the regional forecast of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in September estimated the probability of a very strong El Niño in October–December 2026 at 81%; at the same time, when exactly the rains will begin and how much there will be is still unclear.
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