As of October 31 at 08:56 U.S. Eastern Time, Election Lab had recorded 50.34 million early ballots cast. There were still three days left before Election Day.
In 27 states that publish data on voters’ party registration, 43.4% of early voters are registered Democrats, 31.6% are Republicans, and another 25% are not affiliated with either of the two major parties. These figures reflect only party registration, not how people actually voted.
The advantage of registered Democrats is not evident everywhere: in Pennsylvania, they make up 65% of early voters, while Republicans account for 25%. In Florida, Republicans are ahead of Democrats by about two percentage points.
In 14 states that publish age statistics, 44.9% of early voters are over 65, 37% are voters aged 41 to 65, and young people aged 18 to 25 account for 5.7%.
Participation growth is especially noticeable in states with competitive Senate races: according to an Associated Press analysis, by October 28 more than 6.3 million people had voted early in Texas, 50% more than at a similar stage in the 2022 elections. In Maine, the increase was 44%, in Kansas 34%, in Michigan 32%, and in South Carolina 83%.
Against this backdrop, the average of national polls from the RealClearPolling aggregator at the end of October stands at 51.4% for Democrats versus 43.2% for Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from October 22 to 26 also showed Democrats leading among likely voters — 53% to 44%.
In the same poll, 32% of Americans approve of Donald Trump’s performance, 25% approve of his economic policy, and 20% of respondents view the president’s approach to the cost of living positively. On October 30, the Cook Political Report analytical center revised the ratings of several House districts in favor of Democrats; a majority in the House requires at least 218 of 435 seats.
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