Nauseda does not consider a conventional Russian attack on NATO likely

POLITICO Europe recounts an interview with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda for the German publication WELT.

Nauseda said that for now he does not consider a conventional Russian attack on NATO territory likely. According to him, Russia is not ready for large-scale operations right now because its resources are tied up on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Moscow is not achieving success there.

At the same time, he said that Vladimir Putin is “testing us” and is approaching NATO Article 5 — the commitment to collective defense. The Lithuanian president believes that Russia wants to see how the alliance responds to hybrid attacks, which could include drone incursions, cyberattacks, and arson.

According to him, such hybrid warfare will continue not only on NATO’s eastern flank, but also in Germany, Denmark, and other countries. Nauseda, an economist who has led Lithuania since 2019, also sees no serious readiness in Moscow to negotiate an end to the war against Ukraine before next spring.

He said that in winter Russia will intensify pressure on Ukraine with strikes on cities. “The Russians will only pretend to be negotiating”, he added, not expecting such negotiations before 2027. In his view, if Ukraine survives this winter, the chances of serious negotiations will improve in 2027.

Sources

• Material: politico.eu